![]() ![]() It’s appeared five times, and each has inspired waves of excitement and nausea among a certain type of extremely online politics nerd. The needle was born of that Trump-era agita. and when she didn’t, the shock tarnished a lot of liberals’ (and reporters’) faith in polls at all. Of course, this all seemed like a good idea because it seemed like Hillary Clinton was definitely going to win. ![]() Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight and Nate Cohn (who, at the Times, is one of the needle’s masterminds) sniped at each other about the assumptions built into their models everyone got really huffy about correlated errors for a few days. The NYT election needle debuted in 2016, an election cycle in which sophisticated modeling of opinion polls (which went mainstream in 2012) had become so accepted that it seemed totally reasonable to use numbers to predict the future. She has a master’s in public policy from Carnegie Mellon and a degree in political science from the University of Maryland.LIVE Election Results: Control of Congress Ruth is an active member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research and serves on its Transparency Initiative committee, which encourages more-transparent research methodologies. She has also assessed the different likely voter models that pollsters use to predict election turnout. She co-created Pew’s validated voter survey, which used commercial voter files to provide a detailed portrait of who actually voted during each of the past three presidential election cycles. Ruth is also deeply knowledgeable about working with voter files and likely voter models, two key parts of our polls. ![]() Her work there included polling on social and demographic trends shaping the country, such as gender and gender roles at the workplace and at home, community type differences, parenting and generational change. Ruth comes to us from the Pew Research Center, where she was a senior researcher. Ruth Igielnik joined the team last week as staff editor for news surveys. This work will also bolster The Times’s ability to call races when necessary. The Elections Data Analytics team will be joined by Nate Cohn, our chief political analyst, and other members of The Upshot to initially focus on two of the biggest hallmarks of our elections coverage: our public opinion surveys and the statistical models that power the Needle. As we head into the midterms and look toward the 2024 presidential election, we must expand our ability to quickly understand, analyze and explain the election - particularly at this moment, when the credibility of election results reporting, data and analysis is more important than ever before. But we want to continue to innovate in this area. The Times has become the pre-eminent destination on election nights for tens of millions of Americans who turn to us for the latest election results and for clear statistical analysis that demonstrates how the races are actually playing out. This group is part of our ambitious plan to expand the breadth and depth of our data journalism, which has already become a signature part of our report. I am excited to introduce the first members of the newsroom’s Election Data Analytics team, a new group tasked with expanding election-related analytical journalism.
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